As the United States gears up for its 2024 presidential election on Tuesday, November 5, the race between Democratic nominee Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump is heating up. Both candidates have been focusing on crucial swing states, with every vote holding the potential to determine the outcome. While Election Day marks the official moment when Americans cast their ballots, the process of counting votes and declaring a winner is not as straightforward. Here’s what to expect on the day itself and the potential timeline for when we might know the final results.
Election Day and Polling Times
Polling stations across the United States will open on November 5, with most states welcoming voters between 7:00 AM and 9:00 AM local time. The US spans multiple time zones, which means that polls will open between 10:00 GMT and 15:00 GMT globally. Poll closing times, on the other hand, vary by state and can even differ from one county to another. However, the majority of polling stations will close between 7:00 PM and 11:00 PM Eastern Time (00:00-05:00 GMT).
When Will Vote Counting Begin?
Vote counting begins immediately after the polls close. In states with earlier poll closures, results are expected to start trickling in just hours after 7:00 PM Eastern Time (00:00 GMT). However, not all states count their votes at the same speed. As polling stations close in the western parts of the US later in the evening, their first results will arrive while some eastern states might already be reporting.
A Long Night—or Days of Waiting?
If the race between Harris and Trump is close, as current polls suggest, counting could extend well beyond election night. We may not know the winner for several days, especially in states where votes are processed more slowly.
Raymond J. La Raja, a political science professor at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, notes that it could be a long wait. “It’s really close,” he says, referring to the polling data, which shows Harris with a narrow national lead of about 1.2 points. Even in a less tight race, delays are expected as ballots, especially mail-in votes, are counted.
According to La Raja, if the race is indeed tight, “I would get out the coffee and tea because it’s going to be a long evening that might go into a few days.”
Key Swing States to Watch
Swing states will play a pivotal role in deciding the election, and results from these states are crucial to determining the next US president. Seven key battleground states—Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Nevada—hold a combined 93 Electoral College votes, with 270 needed to win.
In Georgia, early votes must be counted and reported by 8:00 PM Eastern Time (01:00 GMT), making it one of the first states to provide results. North Carolina is also expected to report most of its results by midnight Eastern Time (04:00 GMT). However, states like Nevada and Pennsylvania, which historically report later, may not have final results until days after the election.
The Process of Counting Mail Ballots
In many states, the processing of mail ballots will significantly impact the speed of results. Pennsylvania, for example, does not allow officials to begin processing mail ballots until Election Day, which delayed the state’s results by four days in 2020. Michigan has sped up its process, allowing election workers to begin processing mail ballots ahead of time, but no clear timeline has been given for when the state will declare a winner.
Nevada, which was notoriously slow in 2020, has improved its counting process, but the state still allows mail ballots to arrive after Election Day. This means that final results might not be available until days later.
In Arizona, mail ballots are processed upon arrival, and the first results are expected by 10:00 PM Eastern Time (03:00 GMT), while Wisconsin could also face delays due to its inability to start counting mail ballots before Election Day.
What If There’s a Tie?
In the unlikely event of a 269-269 tie in the Electoral College or if no candidate secures 270 votes, the House of Representatives would decide the next president. Each state delegation in the House casts one vote, and a candidate must secure a majority of state delegation votes to win. The Senate would choose the vice president by a simple majority vote. While such an outcome is rare, it has happened before—in 1801, 1825, and 1837.
Delays and Concerns About Fraud
A significant delay in the announcement of the election results could fuel doubts about the integrity of the election. According to La Raja, “the longer we wait, the more people are like: what’s going on behind those closed doors? How are they counting the ballots? Who’s lying?” He stresses the importance of reaching a conclusion quickly to maintain trust in the electoral process.
Lessons From the 2020 Election
In 2020, the US waited four days after the election for results, as swing states like Pennsylvania took time to count their votes. While improvements have been made to speed up the process in 2024, the possibility of a drawn-out counting process remains.
The 2020 election also saw the phenomenon known as the “red mirage,” where initial in-person votes gave Trump an early lead, only for a “blue shift” to occur as mail-in votes were counted, leading to Biden’s victory. This year, with millions of mail-in ballots expected again, a similar dynamic could occur.
Conclusion
With polling showing a tight race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, the 2024 US presidential election may not be decided on Election Night. While results from some swing states could provide early indicators, a final declaration may take days. Patience will be essential as votes are counted and the electoral process unfolds.
Stay tuned for updates on this highly anticipated election!
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