Bitcoin (BTC) has shown impressive resilience and recovery, surging by more than 8.5% over the past week to reach $64,000. Analysts are now speculating that the cryptocurrency could experience a massive 171% rally in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2024, potentially pushing the price as high as $172,000 by year-end.
Will Bitcoin Reach $172,800 by Q4?
Bitcoin’s performance during previous halving years provides the foundation for these predictions. In both 2016 and 2020, BTC staged significant Q4 rallies, rising 61% in 2016 and 171% in 2020. If this pattern repeats in 2024, Bitcoin could see a major breakout in Q4, particularly following the Federal Reserve’s recent 50 bps rate cut.
After this liquidity boost, Bitcoin is trading in a re-accumulation range between $50,000 and $70,000. Many experts believe that the latest Fed action could fuel another BTC surge, with popular analyst Ali Martinez highlighting the potential for BTC to surge anywhere between $100,000 and $172,000 by the end of the year.
Institutional Confidence: MicroStrategy’s Major BTC Purchase
One key driver behind Bitcoin’s bullish momentum is the confidence of institutional investors. Recently, MicroStrategy—a major player in the Bitcoin market—purchased an additional $450 million worth of BTC, showing strong confidence in its long-term prospects. This buy comes on the heels of Bitcoin’s rising price and is viewed as a major endorsement of BTC’s potential for further gains in Q4.
Key Factors Influencing BTC Price
Several factors are contributing to the potential Bitcoin rally:
- Halving Cycle Performance: Bitcoin has historically experienced strong rallies in the fourth quarter following halving events. The Q4 2016 and Q4 2020 rallies of 61% and 171%, respectively, serve as indicators of what could happen this year.
- Stablecoin Minting and Futures Leverage: According to a report from 10X Research, the market structure has improved significantly in recent weeks. The surge in stablecoin minting and rising futures leverage indicates that market participants are positioning themselves for a major BTC breakout.
- ETF Inflows: Bitcoin ETFs have gained momentum in the past week, recording $397 million in inflows. The Fidelity ETF (FBTC) led the pack, demonstrating renewed institutional interest in BTC, which could fuel further price growth.
- FTX’s Liquidity Release: The bankrupt crypto exchange FTX is preparing to distribute $16 billion to creditors. Many analysts believe that a significant portion of this liquidity will flow back into Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, adding to the potential for a strong Q4 rally.
Altseason and Ethereum’s Strength
As Bitcoin continues its upward trajectory, market participants are increasingly expecting an Altseason, where altcoins experience substantial gains. Notably, Ethereum (ETH) has already shown signs of strength, gaining 16% over the past week. However, analysts are divided on Ethereum’s future direction due to rising whale deposits and ongoing market uncertainty.
Conclusion: Is a Bitcoin Mega Rally on the Horizon?
With the Federal Reserve’s rate cut, strong institutional buying, and historical halving performance setting the stage, Bitcoin appears primed for a major rally in Q4 2024. Analysts suggest that if BTC can break the $65,000 resistance, it could see gains as high as 171%, reaching prices of up to $172,800 by year-end.
While risks remain—such as increased selling pressure from whale addresses—these key factors suggest that Bitcoin’s bullish momentum could persist, setting the stage for a potential breakout and another remarkable rally before 2024 closes.
ENG WANJIKU
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